俄越防务合作的现状、动向与影响

Current Situation,Trend and Effect of the Russia-Vietnam Cooperation in Defense

近年来俄越防务合作发展迅速,规模和层次都达到了较高水平,在海军和空军领域尤其明显。俄越防务合作是俄罗斯重塑大国地位,实现国家复兴过程中,扩大政治影响,拓展安全空间,获取经济实利的重要战略手段,也是越南实施大国平衡外交,不断扩充国防力量,尤其为开发海洋经济提供安全保障的重要措施。尽管不断加强和深化防务合作关系是俄越两国的基本共识,但也面临着俄罗斯武器价格波动较大、越南的防务合作伙伴日趋多元化等现实问题。俄越防务合作关系的迅速发展和不断深化,将不可避免地影响到地区安全局势,加大东南亚乃至东亚地区军备竞赛的风险,不利于东盟集体安全机制的建立,对于和平解决南海问题也有消极作用,对中俄关系是一种潜在的不稳定因素。

In recent years, the Russia-Vietnam cooperation in defense has developed rapidly, both the scale and grade have reached a high level, especially in the fields of navy and air force. The Russia-Vietnam cooperation in defense is an important strategic tool for Russia to spread political sway, expand margin of safety and achieve economic interests during the process of remolding great power status and realizing the national revival. It＇ s also tin important measure for Vietnam to implement a balanced diplomacy among great powers and strengthen defense capacity, especially for the development of ma- rine economy. Although it is a basic consensus for Russia and Vietnam to strengthen and deepen the cooperation in defense, there have been some problems like price fluctuation of Russia＇ s weapons and diversification of Vietnam＇ s defense partners. The rapid development and deepening of the Russia-Vietnam cooperation in defense will inevitably affect the regional security situation, increase the risk of arms race in Southeast Asia and east Asia. It is unfavourable to establish the ASEAN＇ s collective security mechanism and negative for the peaceful settlement of the issue in South China Sea, and also a potential factor of instability on Sino-Russia relation.