基于单纯形法的中长期典型日负荷曲线预测研究

Research on Mid-long Term Typical Daily Load Curve Forecast Based on Simplex Method

针对现有的典型日负荷曲线预测方法的不足,在研究用电结构的基础上,建立了基于单纯型的典型日负荷曲线预测模型,并将预测结果与支持向量机算法的预测结果加以比较。从预测结果对比分析可以看出,起始阶段支持向量机算法比较准确,而末尾阶段单纯形法预测精度相对较高,中间部分相差不大。对于拐点比较大的时刻,预测误差普遍较大。

According to the imperfect forecast precision of typical daily load curve,complex method combined with electricity utilization structure has been proposed for forecasting and the forecasting result has been compared with the result of support vector machine algorithm.It could be obtained from the comparison that the forecasting result of support vector machine algorithm is more accurate at the beginning stage of one day and the forecasting result of simplex method is more accurate at the end stage of one day.,while no apparent difference among the two during other stages.In general,the forecast error is larger at larger inflection point.Since the load is lower at the beginning of one day.