灾难外交与民族冲突解决的路径选择——以印尼和斯里兰卡为比较样本

Disaster Diplomacy and the Option of Channel for Resolution of Ethnic Conflict——An Comparative Study of Indonesia and Sri Lanka

本文主要讨论灾难外交对于一国国内民族冲突进程的影响。针对以往研究仅仅将灾难外交视为解决地区冲突的契机之论点,本文认为,当自然灾害达到一定严重程度,灾难外交可能成为解决冲突的关键变量。通过对2004年印度洋海啸后印尼和斯里兰卡民族冲突的经验对比研究,我们发现在其他条件相似的情况下,由于自然灾害对两国民族冲突双方力量对比影响的差异性,导致了各方解决冲突的政治意愿、谈判中的政治立场等决定冲突走势的根本性因素发生不同的变化,最终两国的民族冲突选择了不同的解决路径。

This paper refers to influence of disaster diplomacy on the process of ethnic conflict in a nation.Different from previous study with the argument that disaster diplomacy be viewed only as turning point to settle regional conflict,this paper deems that disaster diplomacy could be a key variable to resolve conflicts when the disaster reaches certain level.In case studies of Indonesia and Sri Lanka after tsunami in 2004,this paper finds that under other similar conditions,natural disasters could impose impact of different levels on key linchpin such as balance of power of the two parties of the conflict,political will to resolve the conflict and political stand during negotiation.Therefore disaster diplomacy could decide in what a way domestic conflicts would be resolved.