国际经济失衡与中国的战略选择——基于G20所设指标的分析

International Economic Imbalance and China's Strategic Choice——Based on the Analysis of Indexes Designated by G20

在当前全球经济复苏进程明显不均衡的背景下,2011年2月在巴黎召开了G20国峰会,初步确立了衡量经济内部失衡及外部失衡的指标体系。以此作为研究切入点,发现当今国际经济的外部失衡主要是由国际贸易分工、美元在国际货币体系中的主导地位及美国国内经济失衡所导致。而结合这些指标分析中国的贸易顺差,不难看出,其成因主要与产业结构、经济增长、居民储蓄率、财政赤字等因素相关,之前被夸大的人民币汇率对其影响并不显著。因此,在国际经济走向"再平衡"的进程中,中国应进行有效的战略调整,促进内外均衡,实现国民经济健康、可持续发展。

Under the background of an imbalanced global economic recovery process, the G20 summit held in February 2011 in Paris established an initial index system measuring intemal and external economic imbalance. Based on the system, it is found that the external imbalance is mainly caused by the international trade division; the leading role of the US dollars in international monetary system and the domestic economic imbalance in the USA; the trade surplus in China is obviously related to its industrial structure, economic growth, resident savings rate and financial deficit rather than the previously exaggerated RMB exchange rate. During the process of re-balance of global economy, China should adjust its policy effectively to promote the two-way balance to maintain healthy and sustainable economic development.