外汇储备、货币供应量与物价水平三者关系的实证研究

The Study of Foreign Currency Reserve,Flow of Currency and CPI

外汇储备规模巨大、货币供应量持续增加与物价水平不断攀升已成为我国经济运行中凸显的问题。本文运用ADF检验、多变量协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验从计量经济学的角度验证了三者关系,即外汇储备与物价水平、货币供应量存在长期协整关系,而且外汇储备增加引发货币供应量增加进而导致通货膨胀,这一结论在实证检验上是成立的。最后,本文提出了合理调控外汇储备以控制通货膨胀的建议。

Huge foreign exchange reserves,money supply continued to increase with rising price levels in China＇s economy has become a prominent issue.This paper regards：The use of ADF test,the multivariate cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test from the perspective of econometric relations between verified.Foreign exchange reserves and the price level,money supply existslong-term cointegration relationship.foreign exchange reserves increase the money supply caused inflation which led to the empirical test is set up.In this paper,a reasonable regulation of foreign exchange reserves in order to control inflation has been given.