地震灾害预测中的类比推断方法

"SYSTEM REASONING FROM ANALOGY METHOD" IN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER ESTIMATION

本文推荐了地震灾害预测的一个新方法:系统类此比推断法。这一方法以动力反应分析理论和实验研究成果为基础,并结合以往的震害经验建立类比推断准则,从而使震害预测工作与场地区划工作、抗震加固工作有机地结合起来。对实际企业震害预测的结果表明,这一方法效果良好。

This paper suggestes a new method of earthquake disaster estimation— 'System Reasoning from Analogy Method' .The method is based on dynamic response theory and experimental results. Aceording to our experience about earthquake disaster, the criteria of analog reasoning are established, which integrates earthquake-hazard prediction with field intensity zoning and earthquake-resistant reinforcement. An example proved the reliability of this mehtod.