中国天然橡胶生产波动性及增长趋势——基于HP滤波的实证研究

The Volatility and Growth Trend of Natural Rubber Production in China——Empirical study based on HP filter

采用HP滤波法将1970～2008年间全国、农垦和民营以及三大植胶区的天然橡胶生产数据分解为波动序列和趋势序列两部分,对波动序列进行相关性分析研究其波动特征,利用趋势序列建立关于时间t的趋势模型。研究结果表明:中国天然橡胶产量波动对农垦产量波动最为敏感,对海南的产量波动最为敏感,对单产波动最为敏感;未来中国天然橡胶的增产空间与国家的目标值相差较大,保增长的任务艰巨。最后,提出了促进天然橡胶快速平稳增产的若干政策建议。

The natural rubber production data of the whole country,state farms and private sectors as well as the top three rubber planting areas in 1970-2008 were decomposed into volatility series and trend series by means of HP filter.The volatility series were used to analyze the volatility characteristic.And the time trend models were established based on the trend series.The results show that：⑴the volatility of national output was most sensitive to the changes in state farms output,to the fluctuation of natural rubber production in Hainan planting area,and to the fluctuation of unit yield,respectively;⑵the large gap would be exist in growth potentials and national planning target of natural rubber production in the future.Several policies for steady and rapid growth of natural rubber production in China were proposed in light of the results.