基于技术进步视角的中国橡胶制品业橡胶消费回弹效应研究

Rebound Effect of Rubber Consumption Based on Technological Progress in Rubber Industry

以新古典生产函数为基础,基于索罗余值思想采用加权最小二乘法(WLS)测算技术进步贡献率,量化技术进步对橡胶消费量的影响作用;测算了中国近25年橡胶消费量的回弹效应及技术进步引起的回弹量大小,评估国家政策的实施效果,为政策实施提供指导性意见。研究结果验证了中国橡胶制品业回弹效应的存在,1986～2010年平均回弹效应大小为38.26%,技术进步引起的回弹量整体上呈快速上升的趋势。同时,提出了基于中国特殊国情的政策建议。

Based on the C-D production function,using the weighted least squares method and the Solow residual value to calculate the contribution rate of technological progress,which can provide guidance for policy implementation.However,the results of study show that,from 1986 to 2010,the average rebound value is 38.26% and in recent years.It shows a trend of accelerated expansion in rebound volume.Finally,many suggestions have been put forward based on China＇s special national conditions.