新房房价收入比的实证研究

Practice Research on the Ratio of New Housing-price-to-income

房地产价格的快速上涨已成为我国经济平稳运行的突出问题。新房价格与居民家庭收入之间存在着一定关联。通过ECM模型可以对我国1994至2007年的新建商品住宅的真实价格和家庭的真实收入进行回归分析,结果表明真实价格对长期均衡的调整力度很大,而且新房房价收入比的"均衡值"是非平稳序列,即新房房价收入比随着收入的提高,其变化幅度越来越大。

Fast increase in real estate price has become a highlight problem in economy in China. There is a relation between new housing price and household income. Regression analysis through EC model on the data of new housing real price and household real income from 1994 to 1997 suggests that real price has large adjustment on equilibrium in the long run. The fitted ratio of new housing-price-toincome is not a stationary series, which means the change of the ratio will increase with the increase of income.