降低税负与缓解贸易摩擦:基于CGE模型的分析

Reduce Domestic Tax Burden in China and Alleviate Trade Friction:Analysis Based on CGE Model

在研究我国因贸易顺差过大引起的贸易摩擦时,我们注意到了其中涉及的国内税收因素,并运用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行了模拟分析。结果发现,增值税、营业税和个人所得税平均税率的降低对减少顺差有显著作用,而企业所得税变动对外贸顺差的影响相对较小。因此,降低税负有助于减少贸易顺差从而缓解贸易摩擦,特别是通过降低增值税、营业税和个人所得税的税负来加以实现,而企业所得税实际水平可进行必要的结构调整。

While studying the issue of trade friction caused by trade surplus in China, the author takes notice of the domestic tax element and uses CGE mode for simulation analysis. The result indicates when value added tax （VAT）, business tax and personal income tax reduce, the surpluses decrease as well, while the change of enterprise income tax has a relative slight impact on trade surpluses. Therefore, reducing average tax rates of VAT, business tax and personal income tax will help to reduce trade surpluses, alleviate trade friction, and enterprise income tax should be structurally adjusted.