基于灰色GM(1,3)-马尔可夫链模型的公路客运量预测

Study on highway passenger volume forecast by the method of the GM(1,3)-Markov chain model

为了获得更精确的公路客运量预测结果,经分析,以公路客运量、人口和国内生产总值数据为基础,将灰色模型预测方法GM(1,3)和马尔可夫链预测结合,构成组合模型,对公路客运量作出预测.通过对杭州市公路客运量预测的实例分析,对比预测值和实际值,得出基于灰色GM(1,3)-马尔可夫链模型获得的预测结果比灰色预测更加准确的结论,研究结果表明:该模型对公路客运量预测有一定的实用价值.

The prediction was based on highway passenger volume,population and GDP data.The combined model were made up of the grey prediction method GM（1,3）and Markov prediction method in forecasting the highway passenger volume,which were used to get the better prediction results of the highway passenger volume.The result obtained from the combined prediction model was more precise than from the grey prediction method,by comparing the forecasting value and the actual value through the example of forecasting the highway passenger volume of Hangzhou.Effective reference was provided for the prediction of the highway passenger volume by using the model.