摘要
为了更好地应对人口老龄化带来的挑战,基于2000—2004年辽宁省65岁及以上人口的相关数据,运用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,预测了辽宁省"十二五"期间老年人口数量、老年人口所占比重及老年人口抚养比。研究结果表明,辽宁省人口老龄化具有规模大、速度快、程度深、提前化以及准备不充分等特点,并据此提出了应对人口老龄化的策略。
In order to cope with the challenges of population aging better,the article made a prediction about the population,proportion and dependency ratio of the elderly people in Liaoning Province during the period of ＇ 12th five-year plan ＇,by employing the GM （1,1） model to analyze the relevant data of Liaoning population aged 65 and over from 2000 to 2004.The results showed that the population aging of Liaoning Province had characteristics of large size,high growing speed,high severity,ahead of aging and inadequate preparation,etc.According to the above analysis,corresponding strategies to deal with the population aging were also put forward in this study.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第32期147-151,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于轴合型P-N结模型的区域人力资源供给安全问题研究"(71072161)
关键词
人口老龄化
GM(1
1)模型
人口预测
辽宁省
population aging
GM （1
1） model
population prediction
Liaoning Province
