近50年山西极端冷热事件变化特征

Variation Characteristics of the Extreme Cold and Hot Events of Shanxi Province in Recent 50 Years

极端天气气候事件频发,对自然生态和社会系统造成的影响越来越严重,为了进一步研究随着全球变暖,山西省极端气候事件变化趋势及其影响程度,选取山西省31个气象观测站近50年的极端气温资料,运用线性趋势、5点滑动平均、距平分析的方法,结合山西省相对极端事件来综合分析极端气温变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,山西省极端高温呈升高趋势,极端低温发生日数呈减少趋势。极端最高气温大于35℃和30℃日数均呈增多趋势,而极端最低气温小于0℃和-10℃日数呈减少趋势,以0℃变化趋势较为显著。通过较全面地分析山西省局地气候变化特点,得出极端高温升温明显主要是因为大于30℃增加趋势显著。

The thesis comprehensively discussed the variation tendency and influence degree of the extreme climate disasters in Shanxi Province,in order to research on the background of the frequent occurrence of the extreme climate disasters as well as their influence on natural ecosystem and social system.The extreme temperature data of 31 meteorological observations stations and the relative extreme climate disasters in Shanxi Province were applied to analyze the temperature variation tendencies by using tendency analysis,5 points sliding average and distance average analysis.The results showed that：based on the global warming,the tendencies of the extreme high temperature were increasing and the low temperature was decreasing.The extreme high temperature higher than 35℃ and 30℃ were increasing,but the extreme low temperature lower than 0℃ and-10℃ were decreasing especially the tendencies of the 0.Through comprehensive analysis of local climate changes of Shanxi Province,the author concluded that the rising of the extreme temperature was mainly due to the significantly increasing tendency effect of the temperature higher than 30℃.