几种灰色模型在农村生活垃圾产量预测中的应用

The Application of Several Gray Models in Output Prediction of Rural Waste

为了能更准确地把握未来生活垃圾量的趋势和发展动态,协助农村环境污染的治理,结合实地考察某些示范村得到的实际数据,通过建立4种不同的灰色模型对数据进行比较分析,确定了一种最适合预测农村人均生活垃圾产量的模型。结果表明,开平方变换法灰色模型更加适合对农村人均生活垃圾产量进行中长期预测,并精确预测出未来5年的农村人均生活垃圾产量,针对预测结果提出了治理农村生活垃圾的建议。

In order to accurately grasp the future development trend of the rural waste amount and help the rural environmental pollution control,combining with the survey data from some demonstration villages,the author established a most suitable model for forecasting the amount of rural waste through comparable analysis of 4 grey models.The results showed that the grey model of extraction of the square root was more appropriate for mid-and-long term forecasting of the living waste in villages than the other methods,and then forecasted the per capita production of the living waste in the next 5 years.At last,the author proposed some suggestions for disposing the living waste in villages based on the predicted results.