赣江流域可持续性时空分析

Spatial-temporal Analysis of the Sustainability in the Ganjiang River Basin

运用生态足迹理论与方法,调整均衡因子和产量因子,通过生态足迹指数对赣江流域1999-2008年可持续性的时间动态变化和空间差异分布进行了分析。结果表明:从时间动态变化上看,1999-2008年间赣江流域生态足迹指数不断上升,从1999年的0.458上升到2008年的0.585,其中1999-2003年赣江流域处于弱可持续状态,2004-2008年处于弱不可持续状态;从空间差异分布上看,赣江流域5个设区市的生态足迹指数从大到小依次为南昌、九江、宜春、吉安、赣州,其平均值分别为0.70、0.56、0.53、0.42、0.36;赣州、吉安两个设区市在1999-2008年间的生态足迹指数都没有超过0.5,表征其可持续发展状态为弱可持续;南昌的生态足迹指数一直大于0.5,而九江、宜春的生态足迹指数在此期间跨过0.5分界线,说明南昌、九江、宜春3市的发展模式已不可持续。

The temporal dynamic change and spatial diversity distribution of sustainability in the Ganjiang River Basin from 1999-2008 were analyzed by using ecological footprint index according to the ecological footprint mode though adjusting equilibrium factor and yield factor.The results indicated that ecological footprint index of the Ganjiang River Basin increased from 1999 to 2008,which increased from 0.458 in 1999 to 0.585 in 2008.The Ganjiang River Basin was in weak sustainability from 1999 to 2003 while it was in weak unsustainability from 2004 to 2008.The five-city order of ecological footprint index in Ganjiang River Basin was Nanchang,Jiujiang,Yichun,Ji＇an and Ganzhou,whose ecological footprint index average value was 0.70,0.56,0.53,0.42,and 0.36.The ecological footprint index of Ganzhou and Ji＇an were under 0.5 from 1999 to 2008,which characterized them as being in weak sustainability.The ecological footprint index of Nanchang was always over 0.5 from 1999 to 2008,and the ecological footprint index of Jiujiang and Yichun were cross 0.5 demarcation line.It characterized the development model of Nanchang,Jiujiang and Yichun as unsustainability.