我国卫生人力资源需求分析与预测

Analysis and forecasting on the demand for health human resources in China

在对我国人口结构变化以及卫生服务需求进行分析的基础上,利用卫生服务需求法,对未来10年我国卫生人力资源需求情况进行了分析和测算,提出2020年我国卫生人力资源需求量为1 288万人,每千人口医生、护士、药师、技师、卫生管理人员以及专业公共卫生机构人员数分别达到2.34、3.51、0.60、0.33、0.36以及0.82。除了数量上的分析,还需对各类卫生人力资源的素质水平提出要求,通过管理制度和机制的不断创新完善,优化我国卫生人力资源配置。

Based on the analysis of the population structure changes and health service demands, the method of health service demand was applied to analyze and forecast the demand for human resources for health in the next 10 years in China, with the estimated demand of 12.88 million people for human resources for health in 2020, and the number of doctors per thousand population is 2.34, the number of nurses per thousand population is 3.51, the number of pharmaceutical personnel, health technician, health managers and public health workers per thousand population are 0.60, 0. 33, 0. 36 and 0.82 respectively. Besides quantity, the quality of health human resource should be paid more attention. Through the perfection of the management system and mechanism, the health human resources allocation will be optimized.