年平均工资增长预测模型及应用——以山东省为例

Forecast Models and Application of Average Annual Wage Growth——Taking Shandong Province as an Example

Logistic模型是源于有限空间内生物种群增长规律的重要数学模型,它能较好的描述某些有界增长现象.在预测学、信息科学、生物学、农业学、和经济学等领域都有较广泛的应用.利用指数增长模型与Logistic模型对山东省年平均工资进行了预测,建立了年平均工资预测公式.通过与实际年平均工资相比较,结果表明,利用Logistic模型进行年平均工资预测是比较符合实际情况的.

Logistic model is a very important mathematical model which is used to study the growing rules of biological species in limited space.It can make a better description of some phenomenon of growth in limited space and is widely applied in forecasting,information science,biology,agricultural science,and economics.This paper uses the exponential growth model and Logistic model to predict the annual average wages of the workers in the enterprises in Shandong Province and sets up formulas.By comparing the forecasted wages with the actual ones,a conclusion is reached,indicating that the application of Logistic model to forecast the annual average wages is more reasonable.