物流人才供求分析及对策研究——以上海“十二五”时期为例

Research on the Logistics Talented Person's Demand and Supply Analysis and Countermeasure Based on Shanghai during the 12th five-year-plan

为更好实现上海＂十二五＂规划目标,满足未来物流人才供求平衡,根据1970~2009年上海第三产业从业人员数据,借助基于灰色预测模型和时间序列预测分析的组合预测模型,预测＂十二五＂期间上海物流人才需求量;通过对上海开设物流相关专业的院校进行逐一考察,进一步得到上海物流人才有效供给量。发现上海物流人才在＂十二五＂期间出现供不应求现象,并从政府、高校、企业三方面提出缓解上海物流人才供求缺口的具体措施。

To better achieve the objectives of the twelve five-year-plan and to meet the supply and demand of the future logistics talents of Shanghai,this paper uses the combination forecast model of grey fore cast model and time series prediction model to predict the demand of the logistics talents of Shanghai based on the data of tertiary industry employees during 1970～2009.The effective supply has been forecasted after the study of logistics-related professional colleges of Shanghai.Comparing the demand and supply situation of the logistics talentes during the twelve five-year-plan,this paper found the phenomenon that the demand of the logistics talents of Shanghai would exceed the supply of it,in addition,corresponding measures have been proposed from the government,universities,and enterprises aspects to ease the demand and supply gap during the twelve five-year-plan.