后危机时代的中国贸易结构转型——基于商品贸易结构演变的视角

The Structural Transformation of Trade in the Post-Crisis Era

本文通过测算1999~2009年23个行业的CBI（贸易差额贡献指数）来反映商品贸易顺差的结构来源。为转变商品贸易结构,应对纺织、服装等贸易差额贡献较大的行业,以提高劳动生产率为首要发展标准,对贸易差额贡献较小的行业以提升贸易竞争力作为发展目标;以渐进、缓慢的方式实现汇率升值;甄选外商投资加工贸易,延长出口加工品的本土企业的生产链条;加强技术创新;贸易顺差来源和顺差结构多元化。

This paper explores the source of trade surplus through the analysis of 23 industries＇ CBI（contribution to trade balance index）of 1999～2009.In order to change the structure of commodity trade,improving labor productivity is the primary development standard in the textile and garment industry which have high contribution ratio of trade surplus.The paper also considers the improvement of the trade competitiveness for the industries which make the smallest contribution of the trade balance.In addition,the paper proposes the idea that we should realize exchange-rate appreciation in a progressive and slow way;select the foreign investment in processing trade;extend the production chain of processed products;take technological innovation;diversify the source of trade surplus and the structure of trade surplus.