基于综合集成方法论的产业技术路线图研究

Industry Technology Roadmapping research Based on Meta-Synthesis Methodology

提出产业技术路线图是一个开放的复杂巨系统,应当用综合集成方法去解释技术路线图绘制过程的共识涌现现象。阐明了产业技术路线图绘制过程就是一个复杂系统建模过程,把产业技术路线图研讨会看成综合集成研讨厅体系,因此应当运用钱学森提出的处理开放复杂巨系统的方法——从定性到定量的综合集成方法。最后建立了产业技术路线图共识系统涌现模型。

This paper proposes an idea that industry technology roadmapping could be considered to be an open complex giant system,from which consensus emergence can be demonstrated and handled by meta-synthesis.It clarified industry technology roadmapping process is actually a complex system modeling,technology roadmapping itself should be a hall for workshop of Meta-synthetic engineering-HWMSE.Therefore,it should be handled by meta-synthesis proprosed by Qian Xuesen,from qualitative to quantitative methodology.And finally,TRM consensus system emergence model is built.