吉林省COD排放环境学习曲线及减排潜力分析

Analysis of environmental learning curve on COD emissionsand Reduction potential in JiLin province

基于2000-2009年吉林省9个市(州)COD排放量,对人均COD排放量和万元GDP COD排放量的区域分布格局及其成因进行了定量分析;同时,基于2000-2009年COD排放量和人均GDP,建立了吉林省万元GDP COD排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线,分析了2000-2009年COD排放环境负荷变化及减排潜力,对《吉林省国民经济和社会发展第十二五个五年规划纲要》确定的削减8.8%目标的可达性进行了预测。结果表明:在吉林省国民经济和社会发展指标条件下,目标值和预测值的误差小于2%,能够实现COD削减的约束性指标。

The quantitative analysis on regional distribution patterns and causes of COD emissions per capita and ten thousand yuan GDP COD emissions is made based on COD emissions of 9 cities （states） in Jilin Province during2000 -2009;At the same time, based on the COD discharge and per capita GDP during 2000 - 2009, the establishment of Environmental learning curve of the relationship between province ten thousand yuan GDP COD emissions and per capita GDP changes analyzed the COD emission changes and potential of environmental load reduction during 2000 -2009. It is also done to prediete the feasibility of the targets on determine the reduction up to 8.8% according to ＂ the 25th Five - Year Plan of National Economic and Social Development of Jilin Province ＂. The results showed that： under the conditions of the national economy social development indicators in Jilin Province, COD reduction of binding targets will be achieved with target values and predicted values of the error is less than 2%.