中国保险业反经济周期波动的调节机制研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Research on the Adjustment Mechanism against the Fluctuation of Economic Cycles in the Insurance Industry in China——From the Empirical Analysis of Interprovincial Panel-Data

保险业作为一种保障性行业,在调节经济发展过程中发挥了重要的作用。本文基于我国31个省、市、自治区2001-2008年度面板数据,对我国保险业因循经济周期性波动而产生的内在调节机制进行了研究。通过对各种模型的分析比较,认为保险业发展受经济发展影响巨大,保费收入与经济水平(GDP)之间的回归关系表现为对数变量的对数函数形式,这也正体现了保险业调节机制的基本原理。并进一步论证了这种反经济周期性波动机制,在此基础上为保险业的健康发展提出了相关建议。

Insurance has played an important role in regulating the development of economy as a safe- guard. Based on provincial panel data, this paper aims to research the regulation mechanism of insurance to economic fluctuation in China. Through comparison and analysis of various models, the more robust conclusion is that the insurance industry has been impacted by economic enormously, and it shows the logarithm function form between premium income and the GDP, which reflects the basic principle of the regulatory mechanism. Moreo- ver, it demonstrates the mechanism of such a counter - cyclical, and on this basis, some suggestions have been given on the insurance industry＇ s healthy development.