我国货物运输保险影响物流业发展实证研究

Empirical Study on the Development in Logistics Industry Affected by Cargo Transportation Insurance

本文使用物流业发展规模和发展效率作为物流业发展的衡量指标,选取我国1991-2010年的年度数据,运用VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对货物运输保险和物流业发展的关系进行实证研究。结果表明:货物运输保险与物流业发展规模和发展效率都是一阶单整的,它们之间存在长期协整关系,并且只存在单向因果关系:货物运输保险是物流业发展规模的格兰杰原因,也是物流业发展效率的格兰杰原因,反之不成立。而且货物运输保险的发展在短期内对物流业规模的发展影响不明显,但在长期内有较大的促进作用;对物流业发展效率的促进作用较稳定,总体来说有利于物流业的振兴和发展。最后在此基础上提出相应的对策建议。

In this paper the author develop a model to do empirical research about the relationship between the cargo insurance and the logistics industry. In this model the author uses the VAR model impulse response functions and variance decomposition method. And in this research the author selects the annual data from 1991 to 2010 in China to define the main measures including the scale and efficiency of logistics industry＇ s development, and total income of the cargo insurance as its development level. The research showed that （ 1 ） cargo insurance and scale of development and development of logistics efficiency are first - order integrated ; （2） there appears longterm cointegration relationship; （3） the cargo insurance is both the scale and the efficiency of logistics industry＇s Granger reasons, the reverse effect does not work. Then the author analyze the outputs and come up with the results as followed ： （ 1 ） in short term the affection of development of cargo insurance to the development of the logistics industry is not very significant, but in the long term there will be a greater positive correlation; （2） the effects curve will be very stable for the efficiency of the logistics industry＇ s development. In conclusion, the development of cargo insurance will be conducive to the revitalization and development of the logistics industry. And the author gives out several suggestions for the development of logistics industry.