资料稀缺高海拔山区降水量推算方法及在水文模拟中的应用

A Precipitation Estimation Method and Its Application in Hydrologic Simulation in Data-scarce High Mountain Area

在无法使用常规降水插值方法情况下,以SWAT模型划分高程段做法为基础,提出基于多年平均实测径流量与模拟量偏差率最小为目标函数推算资料稀缺山区降水的方法,并用于玛纳斯河流域流量模拟。结果表明,月流量模拟结果良好,日值模拟效果一般,实测与模拟值平均相对误差都在4%以内。说明该方法能有效控制模型中长时间尺度水的输入量,能在一定程度上解决流域高海拔山区径流模拟的降水数据稀缺问题。

If the conventional interpolation method of precipitation is ineffective, we can change it to a kind of effective way. This paper proposed a method for estimating precipitation in data-scarce mountain area according to minimize deviation between measured and simulated average annual runoff. This method was applied to simulate the flow of Manas River. The results show that monthly simulation performs well, but moderate in daily, the average relative errors are both within -＋-4M. This suggests that using the method can control water inputs in the model effectively in medium and long time scale and would go far towards solving the problem of scarce precipitation data in hydrologic modeling in high altitude mountains area.