我国职工工资增长因素的实证分析——基于七省市PDM模型

Empirical Analysis about the Factors of Changes in Average Wages of China——Based on PDM of Seven Provinces and Municipalities

针对近年来"经济高增长但工资低增长"的问题,即劳动要素分配份额不断下降的问题,本文基于2004年至2010年中国统计年鉴关于职工平均工资指数、地区生产总值指数、消费者物价指数、劳动力就业指数以及人力资本投资指数的时间序列以及横截面数据的收集整理,建立计量经济面板数据模型(PDM),提出了一套考察我国职工工资增长的影响因素及其大小的评价方法。并根据模型分析结果,提出了在确保一定经济增长速度的条件下应因地制宜地积极推进收入倍增计划、完善工资保障和补贴制度、建立健全工资谈判机制、加大人力资本投入、协调收入增长与经济增长关系等五项政策建议。

For the problem of ＂high economics growth but low wage growth＂,namely,the continuous declining share of labor factor in recent years,this essay aims to put forward a set of evaluation methods which help us to analyze factors affecting the growth of wages.These methods are deduced by building penal data model based on the data of Chinese Sra.Almanac including average wage index,GDP,CPI,employment index and human capital investment index.According to the output of the model,five recommendations are also made,which are launching income doubling programme according local conditions,improving wage guarantee and subsidy systems,establishing and perfecting the mechanism of wage negotiations,increasing investment in human capital and coordinating the relation between income growth and economic growth.