基于经济效益的海外油气勘探开发风险分析——以中亚地区为例

Risk Analysis of Overseas Oil and Gas Exploration and Development——Taking the Central Asia As an Example

海外油气富集地区大部分社会文化背景错综复杂,矛盾冲突持续不断,石油公司进入海外区块的难度日益增大。同时资源国多变的政策法规、日趋苛刻的合同条款以及区块内难以确定的地质条件和作业环境等,也使得石油公司从事油气勘探开发活动的风险越来越高。本文从风险源的角度对海外油气勘探开发过程中的风险进行分类,从三个层面阐述了风险因素的识别方法;建立以经济收益为核心的风险因素关联关系分析模型,提出了基于预计最低收益的风险指数并给出了其计算方法;收集整理了中亚地区实际数据资料,通过模型计算,给出了各区块的风险-效益分析;结果表明,哈萨克斯坦大部分油气区块位于低风险区域,土库曼斯坦的油气项目多数属于高风险高收益,投资者在乌兹别克斯坦投资石油项目往往面临高风险低收益。

Oversea oil and gas development has been becoming one of the most important strategic tasks for Chinese petroleum companies,on the same time,the risks in oversea oil and gas business become more and more serious because of the changing polices,oppressive contracts provisions,undetermined geological conditions and operating circumstances in resource countries.This paper classifies the risk according to the risk-sources and demonstrates the risk recognition process from three different stages.By combining the method of NPV,and Monte-Carlo simulation,a new risk-benefit contingency analysis model is built,then a new kind of risk index is introduced.Based on the collected data from the actual blocks in Central Asia,the new model and risk index are applied in Central Asia.The results show that,most oil and gas blocks in Kazakhstan belong to low risk-low benefit projects,high risk-high benefit projects in Turkmenistan,and high risk-low benefit projects in Uzbekistan.