电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例

Analysis on Relationship between Electric Power and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Province

运用Granger因果关系和误差修正模型,分析新疆电力与GDP以及三次产业之间的长期均衡关系。结果表明,新疆电力与经济的Granger因果关系是从GDP到装机容量和用电量的单向因果关系。从长期均衡看,GDP每增加1%,用电量增长1.1136%,装机容量增长0.9525%,经济增长对电力有效利用的促进作用显著。第一、二、三产业都是从产业增加值到用电量的单向因果关系。从长期均衡来看,第一、二、三次产业增加值每增加1%,用电量分别增长1.4215%、1.0887%和0.9533%。基于电力与经济的关系,新疆应做好电力规划,避免电力工业的产能过剩,优化产业结构,降低能耗,促进经济可持续发展。

Apply Granger causality and error correction model,analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship of Xinjiang electric power,GDP and the three industries.It turned out that Granger causality between electric power and economy is single-causality from GDP to equipped capacitor and electricity consumption in Xinjiang.From the long-term equilibrium perspective,while GDP increases by 1%,electricity consumption will increase by 1.1136% and equipped capacitor will increase by 0.9525%,economic growth has an obvious effect on promoting effectively use of electric power.All the first,second and third industries are single-causality from the increment of industries to electricity consumption.From the long-term equilibrium perspective,when the increment of first,second and third industries partly increases by 1%,electricity consumption will partly increase by 1.4215%,1.0887% and 0.9533%.Based on the relationship of electric power and economy.Xinjiang should make a better programming about electricity power,avoid excess production capacity of electric industry,optimize the structure of industries and induce energy consumption in order to promote the sustainable development of economy.