四川省低碳经济影响因素及减排对策分析

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Low-carbon Economy and Its Mitigation Countermeasures in Sichuan Province

[目的]研究四川省低碳经济的影响因素及减排对策。[方法]通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用主成分回归方法,计量分析人口、经济和技术因素对2000～2009年四川省碳排放量的影响,并提出减少二氧化碳排放的对策。[结果]现阶段四川省人口规模对碳排放影响最大,其次是单位工业增加值能耗及工业增加值占GDP比重;人口规模对碳排放的影响力仍然大于人口结构,技术因素对碳排放也具有一定的解释力。可通过控制人口过快增长,鼓励低碳的生活方式和消费模式,注重产业结构的战略性调整,逐步降低高碳产业比重,鼓励支持节能减排和新能源技术领域的科技创新等途径减少二氧化碳的排放,以适应四川省低碳经济的发展。[结论]该研究为碳减排政策的制定提供了理论依据。

[Objective] The study aimed at analysing the influencing factors of low-carbon economy and its mitigation countermeasures in Sichuan Province.[Method] Taking Sichuan Province as an example,an extended STIRPAT model was established firstly,then the impacts of population,economy and technology on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2009 were analyzed econometrically by using the principal component analysis method.Finally,some corresponding countermeasures to reduce carbon dioxide emission were put forward.[Result] At present,population scale had a greatest influence on carbon emissions in Sichuan Province,then energy consumption per industrial added value and the proportion of industrial added value to GDP.In addition,the influence of population scale on carbon emission was still greater than that of population structure,and technical factor also has certain explanatory power on carbon emission.Some countermeasures,like controlling population growth,advocating low-carbon life style and consumption model,paying more attention to the strategic adjustment of industrial structure to gradually reduce the proportion of high-carbon industries,encouraging energy consumption and emission reduction plus scientific and technological innovation in new energy technology filed,could be adopted to reduce carbon dioxide emissions,so as to adjust to the development of low-carbon economy in Sichuan Province.[Conclusion] The research could provide references for the establishment of policies for reducing carbon emission.