基于投影寻踪的海上能源运输通道安全评价

Safety Evaluation on Marine Energy Transport Channel Based on Projection Pursuit

海上能源运输通道安全系统是一个由海上运输活动引致的涵盖港口安全、海上航线安全、峡口安全等因素衔接而成的链条式系统,存在诸多复杂性.由于对外进口依赖过高、所经地区和海域情况复杂等因素,我国海上能源运输系统安全存在一定隐患.因此基于复杂系统理论,综合考虑经济、政治、军事、外交、自然等方面,构建海上能源运输通道的安全评价指标体系.应用投影寻踪技术,较好地解决海上能源运输通道复杂系统非线性高维数据问题.进一步引入基于实数编码的加速遗传算法,对与我国紧密相关的41个海域进行了一般状态、应急状态与战事状态的安全状况评价,评价结果证明了投影寻踪技术应用于海上能源运输通道评价的有效性.

The safety system of the marine energy transportation channel is a chain system influenced by the activities of marine transportation, which covers port security, marine channel security, throat security and other relevant factors. There exist certain possible problems in China＇ s marine energy transportation system due to the high import dependence and the complex situation of the region. Therefore, this paper establishes a safety evaluation system for marine energy transportation channel based on the complex system theory in consideration of economic, political, military, diplomatic, natural and other factors. With the projection pursuit method, the nonlinear high data problem is solved for marine energy transportation channel. As per case analysis, 41 related sea areas are evaluated in terms of the general status, emergency status and wartime status by the RAGA. The evaluation results illustrate the effectiveness of the project pursuit method applied to the safety evaluation of marine energy transportation channel system.