我国中央银行货币冲销有效性实证研究

20世纪90年代以来我国国际收支持续双顺差,中国人民银行为了维持人民币名义汇率的稳定和促使宏观经济平稳发展,不断在外汇市场和国内公开市场上进行外汇干预和冲销操作,从而导致了外汇储备持续快速增长、流动性过剩等问题不断出现。通过对我国货币冲销有效性进行实证检验,发现我国外汇冲销效果有限,离完全冲销还有很大差距,分析其中原因,既包括制度、政策因素,也与银行系统内过剩的流动性,存款准备金本身的缺陷有直接关系。为完善我国外汇冲销操作,应增强人民币汇率弹性,促进国债市场发展,完善存款准备金制度。

Since the 1990s, China＇ s international balance of payments has continuely doubled surplus, in order to maintain the nominal exchange rate of RMB, the People＇ s Bank of China promote macroeconomic stability and stable development, in the foreign exchange market and domestic open market it took the foreign exchange intervention and sterilization operations, leading to sustained and rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, excess liquidity and other issues continue to emerge. Through em- pirical testing, we found that China＇ s foreign exchange write - off effect is limited, and there is a big gap to the full write - off. The reasons not only include institution, policy factors, but also excess liquidity in the banking system, the reserve itself defect. The RMB exchange rate flexibility should be enhanced, we should promote bond market development and improve the reserve system