摘要
为建立地表移动的概率积分法计算参数与地质采矿条件之间的数学关系,以我国主要矿区的大量地表移动观测站实测数据为原始数据,采用逐步回归的方法建立了开采沉陷概率积分法参数与地质采矿条件之间的统计回归公式。采用中误差和威尔莫特一致性指数(WIA,Willmott’sIndex of Agreement)对回归公式的精度及预测能力进行评定,计算结果表明所建立的回归公式误差较小,各参数回归公式均具有较好的泛化性能。为进一步验证所建立的回归公式的正确性,以4个测试样本数据进行计算,计算结果与实测结果吻合。最后,以淮北某矿地表移动实测数据为例,计算结果表明采用统计规律所计算的概率积分法参数进行开采沉陷预计计算可以得到与实测相符的地表移动变形数据。研究成果为缺少实测资料矿区进行开采沉陷预测确定概率积分法参数提供了科学依据。
In order to set up mathematical relationship of calculation parameters of probability method for surface movement and geological and mining condition, this paper set up a statistical regression relationship with gradual regression method based on amounts of surface movement data from Chinese main coal mining areas. Willmott＇s index of agreement was used to evaluate prediction effect. Re- suits showed that the error of regression equation was small and every parameter regression formula took on better generalization. For fa- therly verifying the regression equations, it calculated data of 4 testing samples and the calculation result was fit for actual observation data. Finally, taking surface movement data observed in a mine of Huaibei as an example, the paper applied probability integral pa- rameters from statistical rules to predicting mining subsidence and results fit observation data well. This provided scientific reference for predicting mining subsidence in area where observation data was absent.
出处
《煤矿开采》
北大核心
2011年第6期14-18,5,共6页
Coal Mining Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071273)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(CX10B_141Z)
关键词
概率积分法:回归分析:统计规律:地质采矿条件
probability integral method
regression analysis
statistical rule
geological and mining condition
