美国量化宽松货币政策下的中国货币政策思考

本轮全球性大危机的一个重要特征是美国量化宽松货币政策的长期持续。美国持续的量化宽松政策对作为生产型经济体的中国将产生长期不利影响。本文分析了美国持续量化宽松货币政策对中国的对外贸易和资本流动两个层面的不利冲击,得出了人民币对外升值与对内贬值的压力将长期伴随中国经济的观点,在此基础上指出中国中央银行应谨慎论证和抉择货币政策"币值稳定"目标值:在生产要素价格低估下人民币不宜过快升值,传统的通胀预警指标需要修正和提高;提出了未来货币政策总趋势应该是中性的、应注重总量调控与结构调整并重等政策建议。

One of important characteristics of current global financial crisis is long-time quantitative easing（QE） monetary policy in the United States and this policy will cause long term negative effects on China＇s economy which can be characterized as production-oriented economy.This paper analyzed the potential effects of QE in United States on China＇s trade and capital inflow,and concluded that the pressure on RMB domestic appreciation and international depreciation would accompany China＇s economy for long time.Thus,the paper put forward that China＇s central bank should prudently prove and determine the desired value of ＂currency stability＂： RMB should not appreciate too fast due to underestimated production factor pricing,traditional inflation early warning indexes need to be revised and improved,and in the future general trend of currency policies should be neutral,emphasize aggregate monetary supply adjustment and control and restructuring.