城市化对秦淮河中下游洪涝灾害风险的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Urbanization on Flood Risk in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Qinhuai River

秦淮河流域大部分位于长江下游的南京市境内,随着城市化进程加快,近年来流域中下游的洪涝灾害风险显著增大,严重威胁着人民的生命和财产安全。基于遥感与GIS方法,从时、空变化两个方面,分析了城市化对秦淮河中下游洪涝灾害风险的影响。研究表明:①城市化过程加剧了洪涝灾害风险,城市化发展与洪涝灾害风险的空间分布呈现一致性;②伴随着城市化发展,1994-2001年,洪涝灾害风险的增大以南京城南和沿江地带较为突出,2001-2008年,风险增大区域沿秦淮河干流向中上游发展,至2008年,秦淮河干流沿岸的洪涝灾害风险相对较高;③秦淮河下游南京城区和江宁新市区的防汛压力增大,应加强防汛水利综合配套工程建设及科学调度,提高洪涝灾害的气象预报能力。

Main part of Qinhuai River Basin is located in Nanjing which lies in the lower reaches of Yangtze River.With the acceleration of urbanization in recent years,the flood risk of the middle and lower reaches of basin has increased and threatened the safety of people＇s lives and treasure.Based on RS and GIS methods,the impact of urbanization on flood risk in the middle and lower reaches of Qinhuai River was analyzed from both space and time.The study showed that： ①urbanization aggravated the flood risk;the space distribution of urbanization and the flood risk showed consistency;②with the rapid urbanization,from 1994 to 2001,the flood risk of south of Nanjing City proper and area along Yangtze River increased;from 2001 to 2008,areas of increased flood risk migrated upstream along Qinhuai main stream;until 2008,the flood risk along Qinhuai main stream was relatively higher;③the flood prevention pressure of Nanjing City proper and new urban area of Jiangning District which lies in the lower reaches of Qinhuai River augmented;the construction and reasonable control of integrated ancillary water conservancy project for flood prevention should be strengthened and the meteorological forecast ability should be improved.