美元本位与中美贸易顺差之谜

Dollar Standard and the Puzzle of Sino-US Trade Surplus

在传统理论中,本币升值会导致净出口减少。但是,自2005年以来,伴随着人民币持续升值,中美贸易顺差不但没有减少反而大幅上升,由此产生了所谓的"中美贸易顺差之谜"。本文借鉴新开放经济宏观经济学Redux模型,在动态一般均衡的分析框架下分析美元本位对中美贸易顺差的影响,通过数值模拟和经验检验发现,美元本位是导致"中美贸易顺差之谜"的重要原因。美元本位的作用越强,汇率的传递效应越弱,汇率变动对经常项目的影响越小。在汇率传递的不对称影响下,美元本位可能导致汇率对经常项目影响的逆转。

According to traditional theory,the home currency depreciation would increase net export.However,China′s trade surplus with the United States increases a lot rather than reduces accompanied with the appreciation of RMB after the revolution of RMB foreign exchange rate in 2005,which is called 'the Puzzle of Sino-US Trade Surplus'.With the Redux Model′s analytical method——Dynamical General Equilibrium Method,this paper analyses Sino-US trade surplus with a dollar standard pricing under New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model.After simulation and empirical analyses,the paper draw the conclusion that dollar standard is the very important reason for explaining 'the Puzzle of Sino-US Trade Surplus'.The higher the influence of dollar standard,the weaker the pass-through effect of RMB and the smaller the effect of foreign exchange rate on current account.With the asymmetric influence of foreign exchange rate,the effect of foreign exchange rate on current account may reverse under a dollar standard.