中日钢铁产业内贸易及影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Research on Intra-industry Trade and Determinants of Steel Industry between China and Japan

为了研究中日间钢铁产业内贸易及其主要影响因素,首先,选用相关指数和方法对1990～2009年两国钢铁产业内贸易水平进行分类测量发现,中日钢铁总体产业内贸易水平呈波浪形增长,产业内贸易模式以垂直型产业内贸易为主;其次,运用时间序列分析对总体产业内贸易、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易与各影响因素分别进行了协整检验和Granger因果检验,在实证结论基础上文章提出重点应在优化出口产品结构、提高市场集中度、提高自主创新能力等方面努力。

To research on intra-industry trade(IIT) and the main determinants of steel industry between China and Japan during 1990~2009,this paper first chooses the G-L index and GHM to make classified measurement on the level of IIT,it concludes that the level of IIT in two countries appears wavy increase and the main IIT model is vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT).Then we make cointegration tests and Granger causality tests on IIT,horizontal,vertical IIT and the determinants by using time-series analysis respectively.The paper advances that we should optimize export products structure,enhance steel market concentration and the ability of independent innovation on the base of the empirical conclusion.