基于神经网络与灰色系统模型的巨项目风险预测

Risk Prediction of the Giant Project Based on Neural Network and Gray System Model

巨项目概念的提出为工程项目风险管理的方法和技术提出了新的要求,传统的风险预测与管理方法在巨项目中产生了一定的局限性。文章用神经网络逼近非线性插入方法构建时间序中的风险预测,并建立风险时间序列的GM模型和时间响应函数预测巨项目的风险,最后通过实例计算预测结果的准确性,对巨项目的风险预测具有一定的参考价值。

Giant project has made new demands for the methods and technology of engineering project risk management,so the traditional risk prediction and management methods have certain limitation in the giant project.This paper uses neural networks to approximate nonlinear insert method to construct the risk prediction in time sequence,and establishes the GM model of risk in time series and time response function to predict the risk of the giant project,and finally calculates the accuracy of prediction results through practical example.This study has a certain reference value to the risk prediction of giant project.