气候变化背景下广东早稻气象灾害变化

VARIATIONS OF METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS ON EARLY RICE PRODUCTION IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

利用1961—2008年广东省86个气象站的资料,结合农业气象观测报表中早稻各个发育期的出现时间,从程度和频率两个方面对比分析1961—1996年与1997—2008年两个时段早稻生长季的主要气象灾害变化特征。结果表明,1997年以来,(1)低温阴雨危害明显减轻;(2)"五月寒"无明显变化趋势,但年际波动较大,主要危害北部地区;(3)"龙舟水"危害略有加重,降水集中期后推至6月中旬;(4)≥35℃高温热害加重。揭示了气候变化背景下广东早稻主要气象灾害的变化特征,为早稻应对气候变化调整生产布局、培育优质品种提供科学依据。

Based on the daily mean data during 1961 to 2008 from 86 weather stations in Guangdong Province and individual developmental stages for the early rice collected from Agrometeorological Observation Report series,the characteristics of meteorological disasters that occurred in the growing season of the early rice during 1961 to 1996 and 1997 to 2008 are contrastively analyzed in terms of the range and frequency of disasters.The results for the post-1997 period showed as follows.（1） Continuous low temperature and overcast accompanied with raining have decreased significantly.（2） Low temperature occurs in May as it used to,which shows significant interannual variation and mainly appears in the northern part of Guangdong.（3） ＂Dragon Boat Water＂——continuous heavy rain during the time from the last 10 days of May to the first 10 days of June increases lightly,and concentrated precipitation postpones to mid-June.（4） The daily maximum temperature above 35 ℃ shows a slight tendency of increase.The results demonstrated that the variations of meteorological disasters during the growing period of the early rice in Guangdong are under the influence of climate change.The finding could be used to provide scientific basis for adjusting the allocation of production and breeding high-quality rice in response to climate change.