多元线性回归构建湖南省县医院卫生人力和床位预测模型

Prediction model of health workforce and beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression

目的:应用多元线性回归构建湖南省县医院卫生人力和床位的预测模型。方法:分层随机抽样确立16个样本县,按照统一调查表进行调查,根据文献研究筛选20项指标进行多元线性回归分析。结果:进入卫生技术人员数多元线性回归模型的自变量包括:县域的城镇居民可支配收入、粗死亡率、县域医疗机构的实有床位、业务用房面积、专业设备总值、万元以上设备数、固定资产、长期负债、医疗收入、医疗支出、门急诊人次、出院人次、实际开放总床日、病床使用率;进入县医院床位数多元线性回归模型的自变量包括:县域的65岁及以上的人口数、城镇居民可支配收入,县域医疗机构的卫生技术人员、业务用房面积、专业设备总值、固定资产、长期负债、医疗收入、医疗支出、门急诊人次、出院人次、实际开放总床日、病床使用率、平均住院日。结论:预测模型解释性和拟合程度较好,可以用于短中期预测。

Objective To construct prediction model for health workforce and hospital beds in county hospitals of Hunan by multiple linear regression.Methods We surveyed 16 counties in Hunan with stratified random sampling according to uniform questionnaires,and multiple linear regression analysis with 20 quotas selected by literature view was done.Results Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on medical personnels in county hospitals included the counties＇ urban residents＇ income,crude death rate,medical beds,business occupancy,professional equipment value,the number of devices valued above 10 000 yuan,fixed assets,long-term debt,medical income,medical expenses,outpatient and emergency visits,hospital visits,actual available bed days,and utilization rate of hospital beds.Independent variables in the multiple linear regression model on county hospital beds included the the population of aged 65 and above in the counties,disposable income of urban residents,medical personnel of medical institutions in county area,business occupancy,the total value of professional equipment,fixed assets,long-term debt,medical income,medical expenses,outpatient and emergency visits,hospital visits,actual available bed days,utilization rate of hospital beds,and length of hospitalization.Conclusion The prediction model shows good explanatory and fitting,and may be used for short-and mid-term forecasting.