喀斯特山区县域耕地占补平衡预警

Early warning of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance in Karst mountainous county area

科学地开展喀斯特山区县域耕地占补平衡的预警分析,提前反映耕地占补平衡变化趋势,对确保耕地占补平衡和保障粮食安全具有重要意义。运用对象属性解析法从土地利用总体规划、耕地占补平衡、人地关系、生态环境、耕地利用效果5个方面构建喀斯特山区县域耕地占补平衡预警指标体系。运用指数和法和回归分析法,对黔西县耕地占补平衡预警进行分析。研究表明,1996-2008年期间黔西县耕地占补平衡预警综合值波动性较大,预警警度分为无警、轻警、中警、重警和剧警5个级别。2009-2020年期间,黔西县耕地占补平衡预警综合值不断降低,耕地占补平衡分为无警、轻警和中警3个级别,其中,2009-2015年黔西县耕地占补平衡处于无警状态,2016年,耕地占补平衡将出现轻警状态,2017-2020年,耕地占补平衡将出现中警状态。提出稳定和提高黔西县耕地占补平衡水平的针对性对策措施。该研究可为科学调控区域耕地占补平衡和保障区域粮食安全生产提供科学依据。

To realize sustainable utilization of cultivated land and ensure dynamic balance of the cultivated land resource,it is necessary to analyze cultivated land requisition-compensation balance in Karst mountainous county area.With objective properties analysis included general planning of land utilization,cultivated requisition-compensation balance,relationships between human and land,environment,cultivated utilization effect,this study put forward the early warning index system of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance in Karst Mountainous area.Based on the index and regression analysis,the early warning of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance in Qianxi county of Guizhou province was analyzed.The results showed that the fluctuation of integrated index of the early warning of cultivated land requisition-compensation balance in Qianxi county of Guizhou province was intensive during 1996 to 2008.The intensity of early warning could be divided into five levels： no warning,light warning,medium warning,serious warning and severe warning.From 2009 to 2020,the integrated index of the early warning showed continuous reduce,and the cultivated land requisition-compensation balance would be in no warning level from 2009 to 2015,light warning level in 2016 and medium warning level from 2017 to 2020.This research could provide scientific basis for analyzing cultivated land requisition-compensation balance and guaranteeing food security in the region.