2011年中国宏观经济形势分析及2012年展望

Macroeconomic Situation in China:An Analysis for 2011 and an Outlook for 2012

本文分析了2011年我国宏观经济运行的特点,提出有两大因素将影响2012年我国宏观经济增长,一是外部经济环境的恶化,二是国内金融市场环境的内生性紧缩。宏观经济将会继续调整,2012年国内生产总值(GDP)增长预计会降至9%以下,但通胀形势将会明显好转,消费物价指数(CPI)增长将回落到3%左右的合理区间。文章强调,要正确地看待我国宏观经济的调整。宏观经济进入调整型增长期,是一种内在发展要求,关键是要在调整型增长期中解决长期结构性矛盾,加快我国经济结构的战略性调整,并提出宏观经济政策总基调和具体建议。

This paper analyzes China＇s macroeconomic in 2011. On this basis, the paper thinks two factors contribute to influencing China＇s macro-economic growth in 2012, namely, the deterioration of external economic environment and the endogenous tightening of the domestic financial market conditions. For the continued macroeconomic adjustment in 2012, the GDP growth rate is expected to be less than 9%, however, the CPI is expected to be about 3%. The paper points out that such macroeconomic adjustment results from the internal requirement of the country＇s economic development. It is important to overcome the long-term economic structural contradictions and accelerate the strategic adjustment of the economic structure during the period of the macroeconomic adjustment. The paper gives some suggestions on the fundamental macroeconomic policies.