基于Cox比例危险模型的制造业财务困境恢复研究

Research on Recovery from Financial Distress of Manufacturing Industries Based on Cox Proportional Hazard Model

利用生存分析中的Cox比例危险模型,对上市公司陷入财务困境后影响其成功恢复的因素进行实证研究。研究发现:困境公司能否顺利摆脱困境受到财务和公司治理因素的共同影响,财务因素中盈利能力的影响最为显著,而变更管理层对困境公司的恢复也有积极影响;此外,在困境发生后进行资产重组和关联交易的企业更容易恢复。鉴于资产重组和关联交易的目前发展现状,不断完善此类活动的信息披露机制并加强对此类活动的监管显得十分必要。

In this paper the authors make an empirical study on factors that may affect the recovery from financial distress. The authors find that： the companies＂ ability to recover is affected both by financial and corporate governance factors, and the profitability has an significant impact, the change of management also has a positive impact. In addition, companies which are restructured or have affiliated transactions are more likely to recover. In view of the current status of restructuring and affiliated transactions, it is much necessary to improve the information disclosure system and strengthen the supervision of such activities.