中国交通事故发生机制的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis on Occurrance Mechanism of Traffic Accident in China

采用1997—2007年全国31个省份的面板数据,在城市化与交通事故发生之间关系分析的基础上,考察中国交通事故发生的空间相关性,并对影响交通事故次数和经济损失的因素进行了空间计量分析。结果发现:城市化水平的提高增加了交通事故发生率,家用车辆、人口密度和公路里程同样是交通事故发生的诱发因素,而发展公共交通则可以有效避免交通事故发生,道路配置水平的影响有待于进一步研究。

Using panel data of 31 provinces from 1997 to 2007, based on the theoretical analysis of urbanization and traffic accident, the paper examines the spatial auto-- correlation of provincial traffic accidents, and then tests the impact of factors on traffic accident frequency and economic losses by spatial econometric analysis. It is concluded that the increase in the level of urbanization increased the frequency of traffic accidents, domestic vehicles, population density and highway mileage are predisposing factors in traffic accidents. But public transportation is a effective way to avoid traffic accidents, and the impact of road area per capita needs to be further studied.