工业化、经济增长与能源消费——基于中国分省面板数据的实证分析

Industrialization,Economic Growth and Energy Consumption:An Empirical Research Based on the Provincial Panel Data

利用中国30个省(市、自治区)1998-2008年度的面板数据,采用面板协整分析方法和面板数据模型估计方法,以工业化对经济增长以及经济增长对能源消费两种作用关系为着眼点,研究了工业化和经济增长对能源消费的影响效应与特征。结果表明:中国工业化与经济增长以及经济增长与能源消费之间存在长期均衡关系,总体而言,工业化对经济增长具有明显的促进作用,而经济增长又促进了能源消费的增长,但就不同区域而言,这两种促进作用存在显著的差异。同时也发现,工业化进程的深入对于提高能源利用效率具有积极作用。

This paper establishes panel co- integration and panel estimation models based on the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2008, to explore the long relationship between the industrialization, economic growth and energy consumption in china. The results show that, there are stable long--term co --integration relationship between China＇s industrialization, economic growth and energy consumption. Generally speaking, the industrialization play a significant role in china＇s economic growth, and economic growth really have led to china＇s energy consumption continually growth. However, there are significant regional differences in the above both effects. At the same time, this paper confirmed that promoting industrialization process will benefit to improve Chinese energy efficiency.