回顾性时空重排扫描统计量在手足口病聚集性研究中的应用

A clustering study on hand-foot-mouth disease based on the retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic

目的探索回顾性时空重排扫描统计量在手足口病聚集性探测中的应用。方法应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量（采用SaTScan 9.0软件）对北京市顺义区2010年手足口病疫情资料进行分析。结果 2010年3月13日~7月16日,回顾性时空聚集分析确定了6个可能的手足口病发病聚集区域。4月10日~5月7日期间,高丽营镇区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P〈1×10-9）;5月8日~21日期间,张镇区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P=3.8×10-8）;6月19日~7月16日期间,南彩地区和北小营镇区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P=5.3×10-5）;3月13日~4月9日期间,天竺地区和仁和镇区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P=4.5×10-4）;5月22日~6月4日期间,胜利街道和光明街道区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P=2.5×10-3）;5月22日~6月18日期间,牛山镇、赵全营镇、北石槽镇区域手足口病发病存在聚集性（P=7.6×10-3）。结论回顾性时空重排扫描统计量结合地理信息软件是评价手足口病时空聚集性的一种有效的方法,可为阐明手足口病时空聚集性特征及制定有效防控措施提供依据。

Objective To investigate the application of retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic in the cluster detection of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）.Methods The retrospective spacetime permutation scan statistics was used to analyze HFMD data of Shunyi District in 2010 by SaTScan 9.0 software.Results Six statistically significant HFMD clusters were identified from March 13 to July 16,2010 which included： from April 10 to May 7,for Gaoliying Town（P1×10-9）;from May 8 to 21,for Zhangzhen Town（P=3.8×108）;from June 19 to July 16,for Nancai District and Beixiaoying Town（P=5.3×10-5）;from March 13 to April 9,for Tianzhu District and Renhe Town（P=4.5×10-4）;from May 22 to June 4,for Shengli street and Guangming street（P=2.5×10-3）;from May 22 to June 18,for Niushan Town,Zhaoquanying Town and Beishicao Town（P=7.6×10-3）,respectively.Conclusions The cluster detection system based on retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic and geographical information system could work efficiently,and provide evidence for clarifying the spatiotemporal clustering and developing effectively preventing and controlling measures of HFMD.