广告支出与消费增长:基于1981年～2009年时间序列数据的经验研究

Advertising Expenditure and Consumption Increase:An Empirical Study Based on the Time Series Data from 1981 to 2009

理论分析显示广告支出与消费增长相互依存,广告可以通过诱导消费者的潜在需求从而刺激消费,消费增长也会促使企业增加广告支出。笔者在多变量VAR模型的基础上,采用中国1981年～2009年度数据,运用协整检验发现:广告支出、城市居民消费支出和农村居民消费支出之间存在某种长期均衡关系,广告支出是城市和农村消费增长的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,广告对消费的刺激效应不断下降,呈现出长期均衡的趋势。从宏观整体的视角来看,企业广告长期投放应保持理性,广告支出应维持在相对稳定合理的状态。

Theoretical analysis shows the interdependence of advertising expenditure and consumption increase. Advertising can stimulate consumption through inducing the potential demand of consumers and consumption growth will also urge enterprises to increase advertising spending. The authors explored the relationship between advertising expenditures and consumption increase through a multivariate VAR model based on the time series data from 1981 to 2009. The results of co - integration test show that there is a long-term e- quilibrium among advertising expenditure and consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents, and advertising expenditure is the Granger cause of the growth in urban and rural consumption. Impulse response and variance decomposition show that the stimulatory effects of advertising on consumption decline constantly and present a long-term equilibrium trend. From the macro integral perspective, corporate long - term advertising placement should maintain rational and advertising expenditure should maintain stable and reasonable.