劳动力市场状况与犯罪:理论、仿真与浙江经验

Labor Market and Crime:Theory,Simulation and Zhejiang Experience

劳动力市场状况与犯罪的关系是犯罪经济学最核心的研究主题之一。基于浙江28个县1980年到1989年的面板数据,本文对劳动力市场状况影响犯罪供给的机理和效应展开了详细的定性定量分析。双侧固定效应模型的估计结果显示:(1)工资差距每上升一个百分点,一般刑事犯罪率将平均上升0.15%;(2)相比侵财犯罪,暴力犯罪对工资收入差距扩大的弹性更大;(3)刑罚威慑弱化和快速的城市化是20世纪80年代后期浙江犯罪率显著攀升的重要原因。以上估计结果对犯罪供给方程估计中存在的不可观测的异质性、遗漏变量及样本选择等典型的内生性问题保持稳健,因而,为国内外犯罪经济学的实证研究提供了新证据,对我国转型期犯罪治理公共政策制定存在相应的参考价值。

The relationship between labor market and crime is one of the most important topics in the economics of crime.Based on the panel data of 28 Zhejiang counties from 1980 to 1989,this paper analyzed the influences of labor market on the mechanisms and effects of crime supply.The estimation on the two-way fixed effect model show that one 1% rise in wage inequality will increase crime rate by 0.15% on average,the elasticity of violent crime to wage inequality is greater than property crime,and both the crime deterrence weakening and fast urbanization are the main factors contributing to the crime surge of Zhejiang in the late 1980s.The results show that the endogenous problems,such as unobservable heterogeneity,omitted variables and sample selection in crime supply function,keep stable,provide new evidences for empirical researches on the economics of crime,and have reference values for public policies of crime administration in transitional China.