水利水电工程项目行为控制系统灰色摆动模型

Grey swinging model of behaviour control system for water and hydropower project

通过分析水利水电工程项目以及工程项目管理的特点， 指出传统控制方法的局限性． 在此基础上， 建立起水利水电工程项目行为控制系统灰色摆动模型， 详细研究建模步骤、建模参数及模型验证等． 最后， 利用灰色摆动模型分析行为控制系统运行机制的稳定性、预测行为控制系统的未来状态和评估系统发展态势等三方面内容， 并建立起稳定性分析及发展态势评估的判断准则．

Based on the analysis of the specialties of water and hydropower projects and project management,the limitations of the application of traditional behaviour controul methods are found out.A grey swinging model is proposed and the procedure for establishing the model,parameter determination and validity verification are investigated in detail.The stability of the behaviour controul system is analyzed and the judgement standards for development situation are established.