金融危机背景下贸易保护政策有效性检验——基于人工神经网络的系统仿真视角

Test on the Effectiveness of Trade Protection Policy:A System Simulation Perspective Based on Artificial Neural Network

国际金融危机愈演愈烈,贸易保护主义暗潮涌动,政府当何去何从?文章在人工神经网络和系统仿真技术支持下模拟出双寡头企业的市场演化,从多个视角对两大传统贸易保护政策工具——关税和配额的经济效应进行了检验。结果表明:随着进口限制越发严格,进口商品和国货价格同时上升,消费者剩余明显下降,国内产业利润有所提高,国外利润显著减少,世界总福利因此大幅下降,但伴随国内外产品质量趋同,进口限制对世界总福利的损害有所降低。另外,当国货质量较低时,国内总福利随配额的减少而降低;当国货质量较高时,国内总福利随配额的减少而提高。

What should our governments do when facing the worsening international financial crisis and emerging trade protectionism？ This paper deducts the evolution of a duopoly market and tests the policy effect of two traditional import-restricting tools （tariffs and quotas） with the technical support from artificial neural networks and system simulation. The conclusion is that, if import restriction is more stringent, the prices of both imported and domestic commodities increase, the consumer surplus decreases drastically, the profits of domestic industries increase, and the foreign profits decline significantly, so the total world welfare decreases. But associated with the quality convergence of domestic and foreign commodities, the adverse effect on the world welfare is being reduced. In addition, when the quality of domestic commodities falls, the total domestic welfare decreases with the reduction of quotas, whereas when the quality of domestic commodities rises, the total domestic welfare increases with the reduction of quotas.