银行非自愿超额准备金与宏观经济波动:来自中国的经验证据

Bank Involuntary Excess Reserve and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Evidences from China

基于将银行超额准备金分解为预防性超额准备金和非自愿超额准备金,以及将非自愿超额准备金作为银行体系流动性衡量指标,并对非自愿超额准备金的波动机制及其对宏观经济波动影响机制进行考察,发现1998-2010年期间,在外汇占款和银行贷款的综合作用下,非自愿超额准备金率经历了先降后升,然后再次下降的走势。而且从短期看,非自愿超额准备金的累积会对产出、价格和银行贷款产生负向效应,但从长期看,则又体现为正向效应,从而放大和加剧了宏观经济波动。在此情况下,货币当局在流动性管理过程中,应审慎针对非自愿超额准备金展开微调性操作,从而实现宏观经济的平稳运行。

Based on the division of the bank excess reserve into precautionary excess reserve and involuntary excess reserve and taking the involuntary excess reserve as the liquidity indicator of bank- ing system, this paper examines the fluctuation mechanism of the involuntary excess reserve and its influence on the macroeconomic fluctuation mechanism. It is found that the involuntary excess reserve had a cyclical fluctuation trend during the period from 1998 to 2010 under the comprehensive func- tion of funds outstanding for foreign exchange and bank loans. And the accumulation of involuntary excess reserve has a negative effect on output, price and bank loan in the short term, but has posi- tive effect in the long term; thus the macroeconomic fluctuations will be amplified and intensified. Under this circumstance, the monetary authority should cautiously conduct fine tuning operations on the involuntary excess reserve during its liquidity management process, so as to realize the smooth running of the macro economy.