能源价格、通货膨胀与经济增长：互动机理与实证检验

Energy Price,Inflation and Economic Growth:Interactive Mechanism and Empirical Validation

能源价格、通货膨胀与经济增长三者之间具有复杂的互动关系,科学把握三者之间互动关系的内在机理对于我国应对日益增强的通胀预期、转变经济发展方式具有十分重要的意义。基于我国1989～2010年数据的实证检验显示:能源价格、通货膨胀以及经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,我国经济增长将在短期内增加能源消费需求,拉动能源价格上涨;能源价格上涨对通货膨胀会立刻产生影响,但影响程度微乎其微,可以忽略不计。

There is a complicated and interactive relationship among energy price,inflation and economic growth.Proper understanding of the interactive mechanism among them is of great significance to face growing inflation expectations,transform the way of economy development.Based on the empirical study on the data 1989 to 2010,we can found that there is a long-run equilibrium among them.In the short time,economic growth increases the demand of energy consumption,rises energy price.Energy price changes could have an influence on inflation expectations,but the influence can be negligible.